As conversations around the 2027 presidential election begin to gather momentum, Statecraft has released its projections on the states it believes President Bola Ahmed Tinubu could win, bringing fresh attention to the emerging political landscape ahead of the next general election.
The projections offer an interesting perspective on the political dynamics expected to shape the presidential contest, particularly as political parties, stakeholders and supporters begin to assess the road ahead.
For President Tinubu, the 2027 election will be an opportunity for Nigerians to assess his administration’s record, the policies introduced since assuming office and the direction in which the country is heading.
Statecraft’s projections have also opened up conversations about the political strength of the different regions and the possible influence of state-level political alignments. While the report identifies particular states, the political landscape remains dynamic, and developments in the coming months could influence how the contest unfolds.
Beyond the states listed in the projections, attention will also be on other states where changing political alliances, party structures and voter sentiment could shape the outcome of the election.
The projections are not election results or a guarantee of what will happen in 2027. Rather, they provide an indication of how Statecraft currently views the political landscape and offer a starting point for further discussion.
With the next presidential election approaching, the focus will increasingly turn to the candidates, their records, their policy proposals and the issues Nigerians consider most important.
